Polyester: The terminal end production fell to the freezing point, and the market began to be in holiday mode
Introduction: With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic polyester market began to be in a light finishing pattern. Terminal weaving enterprises have been suspended for holidays, pre-holiday stocking has ended, market production and sales remain weak, most businesses have been delisted to rest, polyester market has entered a state of “free-city”.
Since February, the domestic polyester market has maintained a weak and volatile state. The market trend of polyester raw materials is weak, which suppresses the market. The PTA spot market in East China weakened in a narrow range. The international crude oil market fell, coupled with the influence of off-season atmosphere in the market, the PTA futures market fell back and adjusted, the spot price difference strengthened in a narrow range, and traders and polyester factories focus on rigid demand, and the market mentality was cautious. At present, the East China market is around 5860 yuan/ton. The market for ethylene glycol, another raw material for polyester, is narrow and slightly weak. The commodity market atmosphere is weak, coupled with the weak terminal demand, suppressing the market mentality, the focus of ethylene glycol market negotiations has pulled back slightly, and the quotation in East China is around 4610 yuan/ton. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the port decreased, the port inventory fell sharply, and the downstream polyester load continued to fall, and the market trading and investment weakened.
The polyester market trend has weakened, and the market trading and investment atmosphere has become bleaker. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, most of the end users have been withdrawn from the market and wait-and-see, the market has entered a state of “free-city”, and the overall production and sales of polyester enterprises remain at a low level near 0%-20%. Although the production and sales of polyester enterprises are weak, the overall inventory pressure of polyester enterprises is not large. After a large number of downstream replenishment in the early stage, the inventory of polyester enterprises fell to a low level. Among them, the inventory of polyester chip enterprises was about 6-8 days; the inventory of polyester yarn POY was about 10-12 days; polyester DTY, 18-20 days; polyester FDY, 14-15 days; polyester staple fiber, 8-10 days. In addition, at the end of the year, a large number of polyester enterprises reduced production or entered into holiday, the overall maintenance amount of the industry exceeded expectations, and the overall production of the polyester industry fell sharply. So far the overall operation of polyester enterprises fell to below 80 percent, down 10 percentage points from the previous high, and the unexpected decline in polyester load also greatly alleviated the inventory pressure of polyester enterprises.
Since the end of January, the terminal textile weaving enterprises increased at the end of the holiday, raw material procurement gradually finished, most of the enterprises have stopped production and witnessed holiday, of which the comprehensive operation of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has fallen to a low level near a 10%, the starting load of the texturing machine fell to a low level near 12%, the market demand side weakened, it is expected that it will gradually return to the market after the fifteenth day of the first month, when the terminal demand will slowly recover.
Recently, the international crude oil market tends to be consolidated, and the cost side has formed a support for the market. At the end of the year, the overall domestic commodity market atmosphere is weak, the market mentality is suppressed, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market driven by the supply and demand side, the short-term market is expected to be narrowly adjusted, with the support of polyester raw material end, polyester market offer will be slightly adjusted follow the cost, with the off-season atmosphere deepened at the the end of the year, the large number of terminal side have been on holiday, market production and sales are rare. The pre-holiday polyester market will maintain a bleak situation. Wait for the recovery of market demand after the holiday, and pay close attention to the changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself.
