Weekly analysis of the domestic PVC market (Jan 25 – Jan 29)

1. Overview of the domestic PVC market

This week (2021.1.25-2021.1.29), the domestic PVC market prices have largely stabilized, and the price trends in different regions are different. From the comparison of valuations, compared with the beginning of the week, the price in North China has risen by 25 yuan/ton, and East China Regions rose by 50-90 yuan/ton, South China and Central China rose by 50 yuan/ton, the rest of the region remained on the sidelines, and prices did not see obvious changes.

   Although the market price has risen slightly, the overall transaction is light. First of all, from the perspective of supply, we have not heard of calcium carbide process PVC production companies recently undergoing major overhauls, but some small adjustments in some companies have caused a decrease in daily output. Among them, Shandong Xinfa’s power failure, calcium carbide process installations and PVC installations are simultaneously reduced The load was restored on the 28th. Temporary inspection of Anhui Huasu will cause some problems in production. However, the impact on the overall supply side is relatively small, and the inventory of PVC manufacturers is gradually increasing. The start-up load of ethylene process enterprises is not high. Because of the cost pressure of ethylene and VCM raw material prices are too high, ethylene process companies have reduced their load and production. Therefore, ethylene process PVC companies have increased their prices more during the week. Although the market price changes slightly during the week, it is an indisputable fact that as the Spring Festival approaches, small and medium-sized enterprises have suspended work and holidays, and demand has weakened, especially in North China. Hebei, as a province with large PVC demand, was affected by public health incidents. , The demand is weakened in advance. As a result, prices in North China have been delayed and followed up. Some sources even consider Nanfa. But the highlight of the demand port during the week lies in export orders. The export share of enterprises in the northwest region and some enterprises in Shandong has increased significantly, reducing the sales pressure caused by the decrease in demand this week. On the whole, upstream factories have increased their pre-sales this week, but traders and downstream companies have not participated sufficiently. For futures, the operation was acceptable within a week, but the warehouse receipts were gradually decreasing. As of Friday, the warehouse receipts were 8,267 hands.

2. Market analysis of mainstream domestic consumption regions

   North China: The PVC market atmosphere in Hebei is fair, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Type 5 materials are delivered at 7070-7130 yuan/ton with VAT, 6610-6670 yuan/ton without VAT, and the Inner Mongolia plant submits 6820-6880 yuan/ton. Some lower and higher prices are also heard.

  East China: The price center of the PVC market in Changzhou has shifted upward, but the overall demand is weak, and downstream companies have gradually suspended work for holidays. The mainstream self-lifting of type 5 calcium carbide is 7300-7450 yuan/ton (excluding installation), Xinchuan self-lifting 7,300 yuan/ton, Jintai self-lifting 7,320 yuan/ton, Beiyuan self-lifting 7,380 yuan/ton, Yinglite self-lifting 7400 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton for Yihua, 7480 yuan/ton for Zhongtai and Tianye, 7600 yuan/ton for Beiyuan 3/8 type, and 7600 yuan/ton for Tianye 3/8 type. Around 7750 yuan/ton.

  South China: The price of PVC in the Guangzhou area rose slightly by 50 yuan, futures fluctuated higher, and spot transactions improved. The mainstream spot transaction of common type 5 calcium carbide materials is 7350-7450 yuan/ton, triple 5 type is quoted at 7350 yuan/ton, Dongxing/Erong/Hope 5 type is quoted at 7400-7450 yuan/ton, Junzheng/Yili 5 Type 7500 yuan/ton. The price of ethylene material rose slightly, and Dagu 700/800 model reported 7750-7800 yuan/ton from the withdrawal.

The external market is relatively stable, and Turkish prices remain strong. It is heard that February prices reported at US$1450-1570/ton CFR Turkey. Demand is lower than the previous period. Turkish spot quotations fell by US$30/ton at US$1,440/ton from last week. The intended price of US$1600-1650/ton is too expensive. European producers said that there is a big gap with the market price. Customers are unwilling to buy at this price. Although the current price is US$1,440/ton CFR Turkey, it is still at a premium compared to European prices.

3. Crude oil

   The global benchmark crude oil futures settlement price fell, as the delay in vaccination and new travel restrictions may suppress fuel demand, weakening the support that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected on Wednesday. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by US$0.51 to US$52.34 per barrel, a decrease of 1.0%. On the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the March-delivery Brent crude oil futures settlement price, which is due on Friday’s close, fell 0.28 US dollars to 55.53 US dollars per barrel, a 0.5% drop. The most actively traded April Brent crude oil futures settlement price fell by 0.43 US dollars to 55.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.8%.

  The spot valuation of benchmark crude oil in the Middle East fell as the trading cycle for cargo shipments in March came to an end. The spot valuation of Dubai crude oil fell 1.70% from the previous day to US$54.66 per barrel, and the spot valuation of Oman crude oil fell 1.80% from the previous day to US$54.84 per barrel. The settlement price of the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) March Oman crude oil futures fell 1.36 US dollars from the previous day to 54.41 US dollars per barrel. Trade sources said that the March spot premium for heavy, sweet crude oil from Australia has risen this week, and the price of Pyrenees crude oil hit a 10-month high, supported by higher prices for low-sulfur marine fuel.