🚨 Breaking: Fishmeal Soars to 20,500 Yuan While Soybean Meal Plummets to 2,800!

May 29, 2026

GAPS-Global

289

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Global fishmeal prices are rising sharply, with Peruvian Super Prime reaching 20,500 yuan/ton amid slow fishing progress and falling inventories. Strong international pricing and concentrated trader holdings support the uptrend. Domestically, Rongcheng fishmeal rose to 18,500 yuan. In contrast, soybean meal dropped to 2,895 yuan as large South American arrivals boost supply while demand remains weak. With hog profits shrinking and oil plant inventories increasing, soybean meal faces further downside risk near the 2,800 yuan support level. The widening gap between high fishmeal and low vegetable meals complicates feed formulation and pressures aquaculture and livestock margins.

🐟 Fishmeal Surges to a Peak of 20,500 Yuan

International Market:
Manufacturers are holding firm on prices. The pre-sale reference price for the new season of Peruvian Super Prime steam fishmeal has risen by $50/ton to CNF $2,850/ton.

Due to the slow progress of fishing in Peru, there are growing concerns about whether the seasonal catch quota can be met. Meanwhile, domestic port inventories are declining, and tightening supplies have bolstered the confidence of manufacturers.

Fishing Update: From April 9 to May 17, 2026, the catch volume reached 458,337 tons, completing only 23.95% of the quota.

Domestic Market:
The domestic imported fishmeal market is seeing a firm upward trend. Prices for Peruvian Super Prime steam fishmeal are concentrated between 20,400 and 20,500 yuan, a jump of 500 yuan. Recent inventory levels have dropped to 176,900 tons. With strong international prices and concentrated holdings by domestic traders, the fishmeal market continues to receive a boost.

Domestic Production:
In Rongcheng, Shandong, the reference price for domestic fishmeal (63% protein, TVN150) stands at 18,500 yuan/ton, also up by 500 yuan/ton.

Outlook: Driven by worrying fishing progress, firm international prices, and the seasonal ramp-up of domestic aquaculture demand, fishmeal is expected to maintain its strong momentum.

📉 Soybean Meal: Futures and Spot Prices Tumble

Spot Market:
Soybean meal prices fell again yesterday. The average spot price dropped to 2,895 yuan, down 30 yuan.

Jiangsu region: Prices ranged from 2,820 to 2,900 yuan (down 20-30 yuan).
Shandong region: Prices ranged from 2,860 to 2,920 yuan (down 20-40 yuan).

Futures Market:
The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal main contract (M2609) opened at 2,972 yuan and closed at 2,971 yuan, down 18 yuan. The intraday high was 2,982 yuan, and the low was 2,960 yuan.

⚠️ Facing Multiple Headwinds: Soybean Meal Hits the Critical 2,800 Mark

Soybean meal is currently facing a barrage of bearish factors:

US & South American Supply: Expectations of increased US soybean production and the continuous release of South American supply pressure are keeping import prices weak.
Massive Arrivals: Large volumes of South American soybeans are arriving, with subsequent monthly arrivals expected to exceed 10 million tons.
Domestic Supply Surge: As the pace of domestic soybean arrivals accelerates and the peak season hits, both supply and crushing volumes at oil plants are gradually increasing.
Weak Demand: Profits in hog and livestock farming are narrowing, leading to cautious purchasing in the feed sector.
Inventory Build-up: With inventories stopping their decline and starting to rise, oil plants have limited motivation to prop up meal prices.

Under these combined bearish factors, the soybean meal market is in a precarious position.

📊 Will the Key Support Level Hold?

Cost Pressures: Even US soybeans face pressure. Argentina has signaled potential export tax cuts, and the high cost of importing US soybeans adds to the downward pressure. Once rapid inventory accumulation occurs domestically, soybean meal prices could face further downside.

Market Outlook:
Although soybean meal is struggling to hold the 2,800 yuan line, the downside space is likely limited. The 2,700 - 2,800 yuan range remains a critical support zone.

Reasoning: Barring any unexpected negative shocks, cost factors still provide some support. Furthermore, the market is approaching the weather speculation season, making a significant further drop unlikely.

📌 Summary: Fishmeal Remains High, Squeezing Feed Margins

Market Recap:
In the short term, fishmeal prices are buoyed by strong fundamentals and are expected to remain high with little chance of a decline. Conversely, soybean and rapeseed meals remain weak, while wheat prices are trending higher.

Impact on the Industry:
The sharp rise in fishmeal prices is heavily impacting aquaculture feed. Shrimp feed and other aquatic feeds, which have a high proportion of fishmeal in their formulas, are seeing raw material costs spike, thereby increasing breeding costs for farmers.

In the livestock sector, the cost of high-end feed is rising, further squeezing profit margins. Additionally, the divergent trends among different raw materials—high fishmeal, weak soybean/rapeseed meal, and rising wheat—are significantly increasing the difficulty of formula adjustments for feed enterprises.

📈 Big Surge! Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Rise Together

Global Soybean Market Poised to Enter Inventory-Building Cycle

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