CBOT Soybeans Drop on Improved Weather Outlook and Active Technical Selling
July 17, 2026
GAPS-Global
8041
Guide
Highlights at a glance
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures experienced a decline on Thursday, with the front-month benchmark contract dropping 0.7% due to significant technical selling. Prices ranged between $11.9375 and $12.0675 per bushel, influenced by predictions of milder weather and increased rainfall in the U.S. Midwest next week, which are favorable for crop growth. Both the August and November contracts demonstrated intraday volatility, influenced by technical liquidation, ultimately closing lower. USDA’s weekly export report revealed mixed results: 2025/26 soybean sales were below the four-week average, while 2026/27 projections exceeded expectations. The American Farm Bureau Federation has highlighted concerns about increasing soybean production losses per acre through 2027 and requested financial relief from Congress. Meanwhile, trading volume and open interest for the benchmark contract also showed a slight decline compared to the prior session.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed lower on Thursday, with the front-month benchmark contract down 0.7%, pressured by heavy technical selling amid forecasts of milder weather across the U.S. Midwest next week.
At settlement, soybean futures lost between 5.75 and 8.25 US cents per bushel:
- August contract: down 7.25 cents at $11.95 per bushel
- September contract: down 7 cents at $11.8525 per bushel
- November contract: down 6.75 cents at $11.95 per bushel
The benchmark contract traded in a range of $11.9375 to $12.0675 per bushel.
The November contract briefly hit an intraday high of $12.0675 before retreating.
Traders noted both the August and November contracts swung higher then lower, oscillating below this week’s peaks. The August contract briefly touched a six-week intraday high before being dragged down by technical liquidation.
After a week of extreme heat gripping the Midwest, temperatures are forecast to ease and rainfall chances rise next week, creating favorable growing conditions for crops.
Analysts said high temperatures across the Northern Plains and Midwest will persist through this weekend, yet the market has fully priced in the heat stress impact.
Brokerages also reported scattered cash soybean selling from U.S. farmers.
Weekly Export Sales Report (USDA, week ending July 9, 2026)
- 2025/26 marketing year: Net soybean sales reached 188,300 metric tons, well above the prior week but 23% below the four-week average, landing near the low end of market expectations.
- 2026/27 marketing year: Net soybean sales totaled 1,769,600 metric tons, surging from 408,300 tons a week earlier and topping market consensus forecasts.
According to data from the American Farm Bureau Federation, projected soybean production losses per acre will widen from $80 in 2026 to $138 in 2027. The federation has sent a letter to Congress requesting stronger financial relief support.
Trading Volume & Open Interest (Thursday Session)
- Estimated trading volume for the benchmark contract: 106,987 lots, versus 128,683 lots in the prior session
- Open interest: 502,565 lots, down from 505,911 lots on the previous trading day
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