Global Feed Market Update: March 2026 Trends and Price Analysis
March 9, 2026, 2:48 PM
GAPS-Global
218
Guide
Highlights at a glance
This article provides a concise market analysis for key feed raw materials in China as of early March 2026. Corn prices are stable with limited upside, supported by low supply but constrained restocking. Soybean meal exhibits short-term volatility amid cautious demand and falling inventories, preventing major price swings. Fishmeal maintains high price levels due to firm overseas costs, concentrated supplier holdings, and tight Peruvian fishing quotas. DDGS prices remain firm, supported by high corn costs and steady feed company purchases. The overall market is characterized by high-cost stability, driven by supply constraints, elevated raw material costs, and stable underlying demand. While significant price surges are unlikely, supply tightness is expected to prevent major corrections, leading to continued volatility with a slight upward bias through the end of the month.
Key Raw Material Performance
1. Corn: Steady Strength with Limited Upside
As of March 6, 2026, the national average price for corn in China has shown a strong upward trend, with most regions experiencing slight increases. The reduction in adverse weather impacts (snow and rain) has allowed grain holders to increase sales slightly, but overall market supply remains at a low level. Processing enterprises are engaging in essential restocking, which supports continued price growth. However, analysts note that the room for further price increases is gradually narrowing.
- Outlook: For the remainder of March, corn spot prices are expected to remain stable with a slight bullish bias. The probability of the monthly average price rising compared to February remains high.
- Context: Earlier forecasts suggested a potential dip in late March before stabilizing, but current momentum suggests prices will hold firm between 2,150 and 2,250 CNY/ton, with a possibility of hitting a阶段性 (phase-specific) low later in the month before recovering.
2. Soybean Meal: Volatile but Resilient
On March 9, 2026, soybean meal prices exhibited strong oscillation. Data indicates a mixed performance across provinces:
- Hebei: 3,142 CNY/ton (+62 from yesterday, +35 from last month).
- Liaoning: 3,113 CNY/ton (+12 from yesterday, -10 from last month).
- Xinjiang: 3,532 CNY/ton (-3 from yesterday, -1 from last month).
Despite daily fluctuations, the market sentiment is cautious. Feed enterprises are adopting a "buy-as-needed" strategy, showing weak willingness to chase rising prices. Inventory levels have dropped significantly (down 150,500 tons week-on-week to 710,400 tons), which provides support against sharp declines.
- Outlook: Prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting in the short term. With production recovery slow and demand stable without significant spikes, a drastic surge or crash is unlikely in the immediate future.
3. Fishmeal: High Prices Supported by External Factors
The domestic imported fishmeal market remains robust. As of early March, prices for Peruvian super steam fishmeal are concentrated between 17,400 and 17,500 CNY/ton. This strength is attributed to:
- Firm overseas prices (ex-warehouse).
- Concentrated holdings by suppliers.
- Restocking demand from end-users.
Additionally, fishing quotas in southern Peru for January-March 2026 totaled 141,987 tons, leaving a remaining quota of 109,013 tons, which keeps supply expectations tight.
- Outlook: The fishmeal market is expected to maintain a high-level upward trend in the short term.
4. DDGS (Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles): Firm Pricing
DDGS prices remain firm as of March 6. Downstream feed companies are purchasing according to demand, resulting in good sales volume. With raw material prices (corn) running high and alcohol enterprises facing production pressure, there is strong support for DDGS prices.
- Outlook: Similar to corn, DDGS transaction prices in March are predicted to be stable with a slight bullish tendency, with a growing probability of the monthly average turning from a fall to a rise compared to the previous month.
Market Drivers and Conclusion
The primary drivers for the current feed market landscape include:
- Supply Constraints: Low inventory levels for corn and soybean meal, combined with tight fishing quotas for fishmeal.
- Cost Push: High raw material costs are forcing alcohol and processing plants to maintain higher selling prices.
- Demand Stability: While not explosive, demand from the breeding sector (particularly if pig prices recover above 14 CNY/kg) is providing a floor for feed prices.
Summary: The feed market in March 2026 is navigating a period of high-cost stability. While buyers are hesitant to aggressively stock up due to high prices, the fundamental supply tightness prevents significant corrections. Stakeholders should anticipate continued volatility with a general bias towards steady or slightly increasing prices through the end of the month.
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